Hypotheses (Continued)

A hypothesis is set up as a conditional claim:

If Hyp., then (O1, O2, ...On).

In words we can say it this way: If my hypothesis is true (i.e., if I correctly identified the sufficient condition) then I'd expect to make these observations.

Notice that because one starts with the observations, that you end up with an argument form like this:

Let's use ordinary language to see what's going on. The argument works this way. If my hypothesis is true, then I'd expect to make certain observations. I do make those observations. Therefore, my hypothesis is true.

Okay, except for one thing. Is the conclusion "my hypothesis is true" warranted? No. The reason is that this argument form is fallacious. It is affirming the consequent .

This shows us that the strongest conclusion that can be make is, "My hypothesis is PROBABLY true." (Remember modalities?) This brings us to a very important point:

A hypothesis can never be proved. It can be CONFIRMED or it can be FALSIFIED.

Continue for more on hypotheses.