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Because confirmed hypotheses are inductive arguments, their adequacy
requires careful consideration.
- 1) Relevance
The hypothesis must adequately explain something of significance
in a way which matters. For instance suppose my hypothesis is
that wicked spirits are making my car run rough. This does not
help me solve the problem. It is irrelevant to the problem in
that it doesn't get us any closer to solving it than before I
developed the hypothesis.
- 2) Testability
There should be some way of falsifying the hypothesis. If there
is no way to falsify it, then the hypothesis is not much good.
The wicked spirit example above is such a case. You can't see wicked
spirits, so you can't prove that they aren't causing the engine
to run rough. The same is true of many highly regarded scientific
hypotheses, like the theory of evolution. It cannot be disproved.
These are known as non-falsifiable hypotheses.
- 3) Compatibility with Previously Well-Established Hypotheses
A hypothesis should comport with other hypotheses that are solidly
confirmed. For instance, the hypothesis about wicked spirits in
the engine does not line up well with hypotheses regarding mechanical
devices and physics in general.
- 4) Predictive or Explanatory Power
A good hypothesis will accurately predict future events. For instance
is I have a hypothesis about combining certain chemicals that says
that it should cause yellow smoke, then it should actually produce
yellow smoke each time it is done in the future.
- 5) Simplicity
When comparing several hypotheses which appear to be adequate in
terms of the above four criteria, it is good to select the one
that does this in the simplest manner. This is not to say that
the best hypothesis is simple. It is to say that the hypothesis
most likely to be correct is the one which is the least complicated.
See Ockham's Razor in the next section.
- Ockham's Razor
- "Entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity."
Trivia note: Though this is sound logical advice, it
is unlikely that Ockham ever used these exact words.
The following words, which communicate essentially the
same idea are Ockham's:- "Plurality is not to be assumed without necessity" and "What
can be done with fewer [assumptions] is done in vain
with more.
Continue for more on hypotheses.
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